As Football Index has developed there have been a number of different strategies that have emerged and in many cases a trader won't apply just a single strategy. However it is important to know whether you are beating some of the most simple strategies such as buying and holding a certain group of players. For example if I purchased every Defender at the beginning of 2019, what would my return be? Are my returns beating such a simple strategy?
It is safe to say 2019 was a good year for the majority of traders on Football Index. If you purchased every player you would have made a whopping 161%.
However is there a certain category of player that stood out over the year? Which was the best performing league over the year for capital growth? Did players over 30 crumble and become worthless or did they keep up with the kids? This is a breakdown of the growth in 2019 to give you a better understanding of exactly what happened over the year.
If we look at the market as a whole 64% of players that existed on Football Index at the start of 2019 ended the year at a higher price, making you a profit. Only 8% of players ended the year lower than they started. That means if you purchased any random player without any research or reason then you would have 64% chance of making money, 8% of chance of losing money.
But when you add in that the average increase in price of those players compared to the average decrease in price, you quickly realise that the margin for loss over the long term was quite hard. The average increase was 66%, the average decrease was just 13%. So even if it was 50/50 and you pulled 10 players out of a hat, which led to 5 increasing & 5 decreasing then you would still have made money. Take that to your local bookies and see how it compares.
There were 374 players that were IPO'd into Football Index during the year, taking the total player count from 2,918 to 3,292. With the new IPO process pending, could we see that number hugely increase in 2020?
Purchasing the top 10 players in January 2019 would have cost £42.54, them same players increased to £59.08, a 39% increase just from buying the top 10 at the time. But if you had purchased the top 200 players on Football Index back in January 2019 then you would have made 66% return over the year on them players! Plus all the dividends you would have picked up, especially when they used to be the only ones able to win Media dividends.
Goalkeepers got given some extra value this year when media was opened up to the whole market instead of just the top 200, suddenly a calamitous error could see you win media dividends as they are plastered with a sorry look on their face over the back pages. Despite being given some extra value none managed to end the year over £1.
Alisson tops the the Goalkeeper charts and this could be explained by playing for the European champions, but it is more likely because he has one name.
Goalkeepers started the year very cheap and its easier for a flea to jump its height than an elephant and with that in mind if you had spent £1,000 spreading the amount over every goalkeeper, you would have earned yourself a handsome £2,693.
There was one name that stood out above the rest for defenders in 2019 and that is Trent Alexander-Arnold. His price on 1st Jan was £1.21 however after taking the Football Index reigns from Mo Salah, he rocketed to £6.84. That is a £5.63 increase in a single year or 465%. Thats without considering the amount of dividends he won.
This set the tone for defenders and people started putting some real cash into them throughout the year. Overall defenders increased in price by a staggering 160%. If you had bet £1,000 on defenders at the beginning of the year you would have just under £2,600 to see the new year in with.
There are multiple midfielders that absolutely rocketed in 2019, however there is one man at the top of the midfielder pile and he wears a beautiful yellow kit, Jadon Sancho. Starting the year at just £2.84 but give it just twelve months and he is in second position overall and worth £7.83 at the close of the year.
The midfielders category is possibly the best argument against the "have I missed the boat?" Just look at this list of increases in 2019 by well known midfielders.
James Maddison: £3.70 increase
Martin Odegaard: £3.28 increase
Kevin De Bruyne: £3.12 increase
Toni Kroos: £2.99 increase
Phil Foden: £2.50 increase
A £1,000 bet on midfielders at the beginning of the year would have nearly tripled over the year, leaving you with £2,973.
Neymar managed to hold onto his crown at the end of 2019 after a couple of players stealing it from him here and there. A return from injury and a couple of dividend wins meant he was able to wear his crown on New Years Day.
After some consistent form by Raheem Sterling in 2019 it led to him becoming the media man in English football and with it his price rose from £2.73 to £6.82.
£1,000 would have returned you £2,276 if you had managed to purchase every forward.
"You can't win anything with kids" - Wrong again. You can win some serious cash with kids on Football Index. If you purchased every player under 21 at the beginning of the year you would have made 289% over the year! By far the best performing age group over the year, which makes sense they are breaking onto the scene and are slowly gaining more game time as they exit their teenage years.
Top performers in this category include Odegaard, Osimhen, Trent & Felix. All managing a 400%+ increase over the year, which is quite astonishing! Odegaard was the best performer in regards to capital growth, after a year that he started to show the talent he showed when he was first signed by Real Madrid, he rocketed 800%. He started the year at just £0.41 and flew to £3.69 by the end of the year.
There were 37 players that returned 300%+ in this category and the top 10 performers were 23+. As they settle in to their roles at clubs or make the step up into a higher level club, traders expect them to start winning some dividends and that is why they have had a big rise last year.
Hee-Chan, Rashica and Sensi lead the pack with returns of 729%, 660% and 607% respectively. The growth within this age bracket has been huge and if you had bet £1,000 on every player in this category at the start of the year, you would have over £3,000 at the end of 2019.
As players hit their prime you would expect their growth to slow down, if not plateau. However the players in this age bracket still managed to achieve serious growth over the year.
There were 4 players that increased by over 400% in 2019. Tyrone Mings shot up from £0.18 to £0.90 which has to be down to him breaking into the England team. However the real shining light in this category is Erick Pulgar, 863% in one year! £0.19 at the beginning of the year whilst playing for Bologna however towards the end of the season he started getting some love on Football Index and hit £1 by the end of August once he had made the move over to Fiorentina. His price has continued to rise and reached £1.83 at the end of the year.
£1,000 bet on every player in this category would have seen you double your money plus a little change, not bad for players that are supposed to slow down and stagnate.
Possibly the most controversial age group, are they too risky? Are they undervalued? Everyone has an opinion on it. But the players that performed best in this category are those that have actually moved their way back from the MLS to Europe.
After lighting up the MLS Zlatan has been linked back with a move to the Premier League however that didn't pan out as he chose to join AC Milan and with that choice his price rocketed 368% from £0.19 to £0.89.
Once a king on Football Index but then moved to the MLS to score goals from the halfway line, Rooney has finally come back to England albeit to the Championship. This didn't stop his price rise as he had a similar hike in price from £0.19 to £0.90.
These returns from across the pond were coupled with the media dividend being opened up for the whole market, allowing those not in the top 200 to win dividends. Giving the likes of Zlatan and Rooney some real value on the Index again.
Despite players in this category winding down their careers and the pending doom of retirement £1,000 bet on this category of player would have returned you £1,551.
The home league of the majority of Football Index traders, has it become oversaturated or has it grown as much as the other leagues?
Some of the biggest risers from the Premier League have already been mentioned, so lets look at it as a whole. 32 players increased by more than 200% last year, that means if you had picked 1 of them 32 players you would have tripled your money on him!
73% of players playing for Premier League teams would have made you money in 2019 and only 6% of players would have lost you money!
Exactly 100 players doubled their price in 2019, which is quite ridiculous! If every team had 25 players eligible for the Premier League and all were on Football Index then thats a 20% chance of picking someone that will double your money.
Purchasing every player on Football Index that plays in the Premier League, would have returned you a juicy 138% in just one year!
It was a good year for Bundesliga players on Football Index, with a couple of players experiencing a 500%+ returns!
Bundesliga could be considered the safest league to bet on, only 4% of players would have lost you money in 2019. But reward wasn't sacrificed in trade for the lower risk, 72% of players increased in 2019!
84 players managed to double in price from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. So not only was there less risk and just as many winners in percentage terms but there were some big winners too!
£1,000 bet on players in Bundesliga would have returned you just under £3,000 at the end of the year.
The largest single player growth comes from Serie A, with Pulgar returning 863% over the year. There were some outrageous growths from Stefano Sensi, Riccardo Orsolini & Mario Pasalic who all managed a return of 400%+
You couldn't have gone too far wrong when picking Serie A players in 2019, only 7% ended below the price they was at the beginning of the year and 69% of them would have made you a profit.
£1,000 would have returned you £2,385 by the end of the year. Not a bad return for one year.
One of the best overall perfoming leagues with £1,000 returning you £2,790! Despite this Ligue 1 had the least proportion of players that made a profit with just 57%, however only 5% of the players would have made you a loss.
Osmihen was the best player for capital growth returning a massive 600%! There were also 57 players that managed to double their price throughout the year, meaning you had nearly a 1 in 5 chance of picking a player that would double in the year.
Compared to the other Top 5 leagues on Football Index, La Liga was the most unimpressive. They returned the lowest total return of 104% (but lets be honest that is still ridiculously good), they had the second lowest % of players making profit sitting at 66% and had the largest amount of players that made a loss by quite some distance at 12%
If we break that down though there was still so much opportunity to make a lot of cash. Odegaard for example made a 800% return, going from £0.41 to £3.69 in 12 months! It's not like he was a nobody at the beginning of 2019, but still managed an insane hike in price. 49 different players managed to double their price in 2019, out which 18 of them managed to triple their price or more.
So even in the "worst" perfoming league of 2019 in Football Index growth terms, you would have managed to double your money if you had purchased every player at the turn of the year. £1,000 would have returned you just over £2,000.